A mixed start to the week as copper edges a little higher, while nickel comes under fresh pressure.
Copper
The overall technical outlook continues to improve with increasing evidence suggesting a major cyclical bottom to have been secured in mid-March, while the past three months’ recovery still appears poorly based with further accumulative action needed prior to the development of a sustainable bull trend. Hence, a period of choppy reconsolidation is anticipated in the weeks ahead with immediate rally attempts likely to again meet strong overhead resistance at 5,920/40 initially, then 6,010/30 with prices vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness. Local support starts at 5,650/70, which if broken, would signal 5,440/60 next.
Trading strategy: Preferring the long side but awaiting potentially sharp corrective pullback ahead of buying.
Aluminium
Long-term downtrends are still clearly intact, though short-term technical studies have clearly improved with a secondary basing pattern confirmed to be in place. However, initial upside objectives in the 1,630/40 area have now been fulfilled with the past month’s strong gains now looking in need of correction and/or reconsolidation. Expect local support waiting in the 1,560/70 zone to come under further examination in the coming sessions, which if decisively broken, would trigger deeper near-term falls and set up a challenge of the 1,520/30 region where better demand should then be stimulated. Resistance remains at 1,630/40.
Trading strategy: Profits secured on longs with objectives achieved. Remaining on the sidelines for the time being.
Zinc
Longer-term downtrends are undisturbed, though short-term technical studies look to be improving with preliminary indications suggesting at least a secondary base to now be complete. If breaks above 2,070 can be sustained, advances towards the 2,190/2,200 then 2,250/60 areas would then be signalled, whereas a failure to capitalize upon this positive close, would trigger a swift return to the previous trading range. Supports are now visible starting in the 1,950/60 zone which, if decisively broken, would trigger deeper near-term losses and signal a challenge of the more important 1,890/1,900 region next.
Trading strategy: Would now be preferring the long side but only on corrective pullbacks.
Lead
Medium-term trends remain pointed sideways with prices effectively still trapped within the confines of a broad a volatile trading range, while short-term trends are up with resistance waiting at 1,840/50 likely to come under examination in the coming sessions. While a decisive break above here could extend near-term gains closer to the more important 1,900/10 zone, this market is beginning to look rather ‘overbought’ and hence vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days/weeks ahead. Support remains in place at 1,710/20 with only a close beneath here likely to trigger deeper losses.
Trading strategy: With prices back into a trading range situation, remaining on sidelines for now.
Nickel
Medium- to long-term downtrends are undisturbed, though short-term trends continue to flatten out with an extended period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced now. Expect the prevailing up-leg to again meet strong overhead resistance on approach to the important 13,400/13,500 area with a clear and sustained break above here required to confirm the completion of at least a secondary bottom capable of supporting more serious gains. However, until/unless achieved, further choppy two-way market activity is likely with local support waiting at 11,800/11,900 initially.
Trading strategy: Remaining on the sidelines for the time being as reconsolidative phase continues.
Tin
While overall technical studies remain decisively bearish with little evidence of a bottom to this major downward cycle yet, short-term trends are pointed up with the past 10 weeks’ corrective recovery continuing for the time being. Expect strong overhead resistance to be encountered on approach to the 17,800/17,900 region with this market still vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days and weeks ahead. Support is now visible starting at 15,300 then 14,600/14,700 with a close beneath here needed to trigger deeper falls and set up a retest of the 13,100/13,200 zone.
Trading strategy: Monitoring the current corrective phase for an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
Gold
While underlying bullish patterns remain firmly in force with prices still expected to trend closer to the 1,800 region in the weeks ahead, short-term trends have again flattened out with a fresh period of choppy reconsolidation being experienced now. Expect the current upward leg to again meet strong overhead resistance in and around the important 1,760.0/65.0 area with a clear and sustained break above here needed to regenerate upward momentum and set values on course to challenge out target in the 1,795.0/1,800.0 region where better supply should then be stimulated. Support starts now at 1,700.0/05.0
Trading strategy: Continuing to buy dips/holding longs looking for the 1,800.0 region.
Silver
Short- to medium-term technical studies have clearly improved with prices breaking decisively to the upside from the confines of the past months’ reconsolidative pattern. The market looks capable of challenging the 19.50/70 area in the days/weeks ahead and while interim resistance should be encountered in and around the 18.30/50 region, immediate pullbacks are likely to be limited to corrective dips only for the time being. Local support is now visible starting at 16.50/70 then again towards the more important 15.40/60 zone with only a close back under here likely to trigger deeper near term falls.
Trading strategy: Preferring the long side now but only on corrective dips looking for 18.80/19.60 regions.
The data shown and the views expressed on this sheet are for information purposes only and do not constitute recommendations to trade. Cliff Green Consultancy does not accept any liability for loss or damage suffered through any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading any information provided herein.
Tuesday, June 23, 2020 | Tel: + 44 (0)7710369208 | www.cliffgreenconsultancy.com | email: cliff_green@hotmail.com