The complex finishes the week on the defensive as supports look set to be freshly challenged.
The medium- to long-term downtrend structure remains intact with the past 5-6 weeks recovery phase still viewed as poorly based corrective action only, with this market appearing increasingly vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days ahead. While local support should be anticipated at 5,070/90 initially, then again towards the pivotal 4,940/60 area, a clear and sustained break beneath here would signal acceleration towards the 4,740 and even 4,400 regions once more where better demand should then be stimulated. Overhead resistance is visible starting in and around the 5,300/20 zone.
Trading strategy: Holding shorts looking for initially 4,740 and even 4,400. Protecting above 5,320.
Overall bearish patterns are undisturbed, while short-term trends look to have flattened out with a fresh characteristic period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced now. Expect immediate recovery attempts to be restricted by strong overhead resistances waiting at 1,540/60 initially and whilst a clear and sustained break back above here could extend near-term gains closer to the 1,600/10 zone, this market remains vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days ahead. Supports are now visible starting at 1,480/90 then again towards the historically important 1,430/40 region.
Trading strategy: Having secured profits on shorts, remaining on sidelines for the time being.
Medium- to long-term downtrends remain firmly in force with little evidence of a bottom yet, though short-term trends have flattened out with a fresh period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced now. However, expect immediate recovery attempts to again meet strong overhead resistance at 1,970/80 initially and while a decisive break above here could extend near-term gains, further supply waiting in the 2,050/70 zone should limit upside potential with this market increasingly vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness. Local support is visible starting at 1,860/70 then again towards 1,760/70.
Trading strategy: Continuing to re-establish shorts on bounces looking for a retest of the 1,770 area.
Medium- to long-term bearish patterns remain firmly intact and while short-term trends are currently rather flat with a period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced, this market is looking vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days ahead. The historically important 1,550/60 region could come under fresh examination, which, if decisively breached, would trigger acceleration towards the 1,500 and even 1,450 areas prior to better demand being stimulated. However, until achieved, further choppy two-way activity is likely with resistance now visible at 1,670/80 then 1,750/60.
Trading strategy: Continuing to utilize corrective rebounds to probe the short side.
The overall bearish outlook remains firmly in force with little evidence of any bottom to this major downward cycle yet, while short-term trends have turned up with a period of corrective/reconsolidative action being experienced at present. However, expect immediate rally attempts to be restricted by strong overhead resistances waiting at 12,500/12,600 initially then 13,400/13,500 with only a clear and sustained break above this upper boundary capable of improving the underlying tone. Local support at 11,600/11,700 could now come under a fresh test, which, if decisively breached, would signal 10,900.
Trading strategy: Continuing to utilize corrective bounces to re-establish shorts.
While overall technical studies remain decisively bearish with little evidence of a bottom to this major downward cycle yet, prices look to have uncovered good support on approach to the historically important 13,000/13,100 area with much needed corrective action currently being experienced. However, in the absence of any significant basing activity, recovery attempts are likely to prove unsustainable at this stage with strong resistance anticipated at 15,500/15,600 initially, then again towards the 17,000/17,100 region with prices remaining vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness. Support now at 14,000/14,100.
Trading strategy: With profits on shorts secured, monitoring current correction ahead of re-establishing.
Medium- to long-term bullish patterns remain firmly in force and while prevailing high levels of volatility suggest deep corrective action is likely to be an ongoing characteristic, prices are expected to trend closer to the 1,800.0 region in the weeks ahead. Interim resistance should again be encountered in and around the 1,745.0/50.0 area although pullbacks should now uncover good support starting in the 1,660.0/65.0 zone. Only a clear and sustained break beneath here would trigger more serious near-term falls and set up a fresh challenge of the more important 1,600.0/05 levels where better demand should be stimulated.
Trading strategy: Would once again look to probe the long side on corrective dips looking for the 1,800.0 region.
The overall technical outlook remains clearly bearish with lower targets still readable in the weeks ahead, while interim objectives in and around the 11.20/40 area have been fulfilled with sharp corrective action currently being experienced. However, this appears poorly based and hence unlikely to prove sustainable at this stage with strong overhead resistances waiting at initially 16.00/20 then on approach to the 16.80/17.00 zone. Unless this upper boundary can be regained, prices remain vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness with support now waiting at 14.50/70 initially, then at 13.70/90.
Trading strategy: Monitoring current sharp corrective bounce for an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
The data shown and the views expressed on this sheet are for information purposes only and do not constitute recommendations to trade. Cliff Green Consultancy does not accept any liability for loss or damage suffered through any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading any information provided herein.
Monday, May 04, 2020 | Tel: + 44 (0)7710369208 | www.cliffgreenconsultancy.com | email: email@example.com