A further consolidative phase although the complex looks increasingly vulnerable to fresh weakness.
Medium- to long-term downtrends remain firmly in force with the past five weeks’ recovery phase still considered to be poorly based corrective action only and hence unlikely to prove sustainable. Expect strong resistance to be encountered on approach to the 5,320/40 area and unless this can be decisively broken, would anticipate renewed bouts of weakness in the days and weeks ahead. Local supports are now visible starting at 5,080/5,100 then again towards the pivotal 4,940/60 zone with a market close beneath here needed to regenerate downward momentum and signal retests of 4,740 initially, and then 4,400.
Trading strategy: Holding shorts looking for 4,740 initially and even 4,400. Protecting above 5,340.
Overall bearish patterns remain firmly in force with recent recovery attempts considered to have been unsustainable corrective action only. Preliminary indications suggest this to have run its course with a further challenge of the historically important 1,430/50 area, now likely in the coming days. Good support should again be stimulated in this region with only a clear and sustained break beneath here likely to trigger more serious losses and set up a test of the 1,380/90 zone. However, continued success in holding here would encourage the possibility of a bottom being established.
Trading strategy: Having secured profits on shorts, prefer to await the result of a fresh test of historic supports ahead of re-entering.
The medium- to long-term downtrend structure remains firmly in force with the past month’s strong recovery considered to have been corrective action only. Preliminary technical studies suggest this short-term upward cycle to now be complete with prices vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days ahead. While local support should be encountered at 1,830/40 initially, a clear and sustained break beneath here would signal acceleration towards the area of March lows in and around 1,760/70 where better demand should then be uncovered. Resistance remains in place at 1,970/80 then 2,050/70.
Trading strategy: Continuing to re-establish shorts on bounces looking for a retest of the 1,770 area.
Medium- to long-term bearish patterns remain firmly intact and while short-term trends are rather flat now with a period of correction and reconsolidation being experienced, this market is looking vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days ahead. The historically important 1,550/60 region could come under fresh examination in the days ahead, which if decisively breached, would trigger acceleration towards the 1,500 and even 1,450 areas prior to better demand being stimulated. However, until achieved further, choppy two-way activity is likely with resistance now at 1,670/80 then 1,750/60.
Trading strategy: Continuing to utilize corrective rebounds to probe the short side.
The overall bearish outlook remains firmly in force with little evidence of any bottom to this major downward cycle yet. Short-term trends, though, have turned up with a period of corrective action being experienced at present. However, strong overhead resistances waiting at 12,900/13,000 initially, then 13,400/13,500 should cap gains and unless this upper boundary can be decisively breached, this market appears increasingly vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days and weeks ahead. Nearby support should now be anticipated at 11,400/11,500 initially, then again towards 10,800/10,900.
Trading strategy: Monitoring the current corrective bounce for an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
Overall technical studies remain decisively bearish with little evidence of a bottom to this major downward cycle yet, but prices look to have uncovered good support on approach to the historically important 13,000/13,100 area with much needed corrective action being experienced now. However, in the absence of any significant basing activity, recovery attempts are likely to prove unsustainable at this stage with strong resistance anticipated at 15,500/15,600 initially then again towards the 17,000/17,100 region with prices remaining vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness. Support now at 14,000/14,100.
Trading strategy: With profits on shorts secured, monitoring the current correction ahead of re-establishing.
Medium- to long-term bullish patterns remain firmly in force and while prevailing high levels of volatility suggest deep corrective action is likely to be an ongoing characteristic, prices are expected to trend closer to the 1,800.0 region in the weeks ahead. Interim resistance should again be encountered in and around the 1,745.0/50.0 area although pullbacks should now uncover good support starting in the 1,640.0/45.0 zone. Only a clear and sustained break beneath here would trigger more serious near-term falls and set up a fresh challenge of the more important 1,600.0/05 levels where better demand should be stimulated.
Trading strategy: Would once again look to probe the long side on corrective dips looking for 1,800.0 region.
The overall technical outlook remains clearly bearish with lower targets still readable in the weeks ahead, while interim objectives in and around the 11.20/40 area have been fulfilled with sharp corrective action being experienced now. However, this appears poorly based and hence unlikely to prove sustainable at this stage with strong overhead resistances waiting at 16.00/20 initially, then on approach to the 16.80/17.00 zone. Unless this upper boundary can be regained prices remain vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness with support now waiting at 14.50/70 initially, then at 13.70/90.
Trading strategy: Monitoring current sharp corrective bounce for an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
The data shown and the views expressed on this sheet are for information purposes only and do not constitute recommendations to trade. Cliff Green Consultancy does not accept any liability for loss or damage suffered through any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading any information provided herein.
Wednesday, April 29, 2020 | Tel: + 44 (0)7710369208 | www.cliffgreenconsultancy.com | email: email@example.com