A rather mixed and consolidatory session as past month’s corrective phase draws to a close.
The intermediate- to long-term downtrend structure remains inforce and with preliminary indications suggesting the past five weeks corrective phase to be drawing to its conclusion, pricesappear increasingly vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness.While local support should again be uncovered in and around the4,940/60 area, a clear and sustained break beneath here wouldtrigger potentially sharp falls closer to the pivotal 4,730/50 with aclose beneath here likely to set up a retest of the March lows inthe 4,370/90 region. Near-term recovery attempts should meetstrong resistance at 5,230/50 then 5,320/40.
Trading strategy: Holding shorts looking for initially 4,740 andeven 4,400. Protecting above 5,340.
Overall bearish patterns remain firmly in force with recentrecovery attempts considered to have been unsustainablecorrective action only. Preliminary indications suggest this to havenow run its course with a further challenge of the historicallyimportant 1,430/50 area now likely in the coming days. Goodsupport should again be stimulated in this region with only a clearand sustained break beneath here likely to trigger more seriouslosses and set up a test of the 1,380/90 zone. However, continuedsuccess in holding here would encourage the possibility of abottom being established.
Trading strategy: Having secured profits on shorts prefer toawait the result of a fresh test of historic supports ahead of re-entering.
The medium- to long-term downtrend structure remains firmly inforce with the past month’s strong recovery considered to havebeen corrective action only. Preliminary technical studies nowsuggest this short-term upward cycle to now be complete withprices vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the daysahead. While local support should be encountered at initially1,830/40 a clear and sustained break beneath here would signalacceleration towards the area of the March lows in and around1,760/70 where better demand should then be uncovered.Resistance remains in place at 1,970/80 then at 2,050/70.
Trading strategy: Continuing to re-establish shorts on bounces looking for a retest of the 1,770 area.
Medium- to long-term bearish patterns remain firmly intact andwhile shorter-term trends are currently rather flat with a periodof correction and reconsolidation being experienced, this marketis looking vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the daysahead. Local support waiting at 1,630/40 initially, couldcome under fresh examination, which, if decisively broken, wouldset up a challenge of the more important 1,570/80 zone wherebetter demand should then be stimulated. Resistance remainsin place in and around the 1,750/60 region with only adecisive close above here capable of improving the tone.
Trading strategy: Continuing to utilize corrective reboundsto probe the short side.
The overall bearish outlook remains firmly in force withlittle evidence of any bottom to this major downward cycle yet, while short-term trends have turned up with a period ofcorrective action being experienced now. However, strongoverhead resistances waiting at 12,900/13,000 initially, then at 13,400/13,500 should cap gains and unless this upper boundarycan be decisively breached, this market appears increasinglyvulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness in the days andweeks ahead. Nearby support should now be anticipated atinitially 11,400/11,500 the again towards 10,800/10,900.
Trading strategy: Monitoring the current corrective bouncefor an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
Overall technical studies remain decisively bearish withlittle evidence of a bottom to this major downward cycle yet, though prices look to have uncovered good support on approach to thehistorically important 13,000/13,100 area with much-neededcorrective action being experienced at present. However, in theabsence of any significant basing activity, recovery attempts arelikely to prove unsustainable at this stage with strong resistance anticipated at 15,500/15,600 initially, then again towards the17,000/17,100 region with prices remaining vulnerable torenewed bouts of weakness. Support now at 14,000/14,100.
Trading strategy: With profits on shorts secured monitoring the current correction ahead of re-establishing.
Medium- to long-term bullish patterns remain firmly in force andwhile prevailing high levels of volatility suggest deep correctiveaction is likely to be an ongoing characteristic, prices areexpected to trend closer to the 1,800.0 region in the weeks ahead.Interim resistance should be encountered again in and around the1,745.0/50.0 area. Near-term pullbacks should now uncover goodsupport starting in the 1,640.0/45.0 zone. Only a clear andsustained break beneath here would trigger more serious near-term falls and set up a fresh challenge of the more important1,600.0/05 levels where better demand should be stimulated.
Trading strategy: Would once again look to probe the long side on corrective dips looking for the 1,800.0 region.
The overall technical outlook remains clearly bearish with lower targets still readable in the weeks ahead, while interimobjectives in and around the 11.20/40 area have been fulfilledwith sharp corrective action currently being experienced.However, this appears poorly based and hence unlikely toprove sustainable at this stage with strong overheadresistances waiting at 16.00/20 initially, then on approach to the16.80/17.00 zone. Unless this upper boundary can be regained,prices remain vulnerable to renewed bouts of weakness withsupport now waiting at initially 14.50/70 then 13.70/90.
Trading strategy: Monitoring current sharp correctivebounce for an opportunity to re-establish shorts.
The data shown and the views expressed on this sheet are for information purposes only and do not constitute recommendations to trade. Cliff Green Consultancy does not accept any liability for loss or damage suffered through any actions taken or not taken as a result of reading any information provided herein.
Friday, April 24, 2020 | Tel: + 44 (0)7710369208 | www.cliffgreenconsultancy.com | email: email@example.com