India’s copper production deficit is likely to expand to 43-45pc in the fiscal year 2020, from 39pc in the prior year period.
The domestic demand for non-ferrous metals in 2020 was impacted by the slowdown in the automobile and construction sectors, according to a statement by Information and Credit Rating Agency (Icra).
The consumption growth of aluminium, copper and zinc is likely to be lower at 2-4pc, from 3-5pc forecasted earlier in 2019.
Shortage of copper in India was also fuelled by the shutdown of Vedanta’s copper complex, which turned the country into a net importer in the year, from a net exporter in 2018.
India remained a net exporter of aluminium and zinc, with domestic capacities higher than demand, as plants operated at a higher asset utilization level.
Global production of aluminium
Production of aluminium was deficient by 0.07-1.05mn mt globally in the last ten quarters, on capacity cutbacks in China in the period.
Despite China increasing its aluminium production in the second half of 2019, shutdown of loss-making units in Mar-Sep 2019 period, resulted in a production de-growth in the fiscal year. Supply is not likely to increase in the near term, as companies are unlikely to revive their idled capacities till aluminium price strengthens further.
Global production of Zinc
Output of zinc mines increased as newly operational mines in Australia and South Africa ramped up their production. Zinc output went up by 0.9pc in the first nine months of the fiscal year, but the consumption went down by 0.3pc.
The prices of Al, Cu, Zn
The prices of aluminium and copper increased in the last three months, as trade tensions in international markets eased. Aluminium prices in the spot markets increased by 4pc in the last three months, and the copper prices in the period increased by 10pc.
Zinc prices decreased by 3pc in the last three months, with a surplus of zinc production in the global market, decreasing its prices.