Davis Index: Market Intelligence for the Global Metals and Recycled Materials Markets

A detailed data on Oct 2019 copper supply based on a country, copper mine, smelter, trade, stocks, prices etc was released by International Copper Study Group (ICSG) in the copper Bulletin. 


The world mine production was down by 0.3pc in the first ten months of 2019. Despite Chile being world’s largest copper mining countries, the production dropped by 0.2pc, while the Indonesian output significantly dropped by 47pc. The copper production in Congo and Zambia dropped by 3pc in 2019 through Oct, due to temporary suspensions of SX-EW mines and operation constrains, despite a growth of 13pc in 2018. On the other side, the world mine production trended upwards in a number of countries like Australia, China, Mexico, Peru  and United States due to recovery from constrained output in 2018. Panama recorded to be one of the largest contributor to copper mine production due to commissioning of Cobre de Panama mine. The actual copper production in Panama started only in March 2019.


Overall, the copper mine production increased in the first 10 months of 2019 by 4pc in North America, 1.5pc in Latin America and 5pc in Oceania. Whereas the copper production decline in Asia, Africa and Europe by 2pc, 2pc and 2pc respectively.


The data also suggests that the world refined production dropped by 0.3pc in the first 10 months of 2019. This entailed drop of primary production by 0.7pc, but increase in secondary production by 1.7pc. Again the refined production from Chile dropped significantly by 10pc. There was a 27pc decline in Chilean electrolytic refined output due to temporary smelter shutdowns, major contributing towards the refine production decline. The Zambian refined output decline by 37pc in 2019 through Oct, given the 5pc custom duty on copper concentrate imports and Indian refined output decline by 21pc due to shutdown of Tuticorin smelter in 2018. There was also a declined refined production output from countries like Japan, United States Peru etc. 


China on the other hand showed growth in refined production output along with countries like Australia, Iran, Brazil and Poland, partially offsetting the declines from other countries. On an average, the refined production was estimated to have increased by 3pc in Asia and 10pc in Oceania and declined by 2pc in North America, 7pc in Latin America and 9.5pc and 2pc in Africa and Europe respectively in the first ten months of 2019.


According to the date, the world refined usage increased by 0.2pc until Oct 2019. Though the Chinese refined copper imports dropped by 11pc, their usage increased by 2.2pc allowing for higher Chinese refinery output. The refined copper usage dropped in Europe and Japan but saw an increased usage in countries like United States, India and Taiwan. Overall the world refined copper usage excluding China decline by 2pc until Oct 2019. 


The data also reads about the world refined copper balance which shows a deficit of 398,254 mt until Oct 2019 based on Chinese usage. However, with an adjusted Chinese usage, the world refined copper balance indicates a market deficit of 557,918mt. 

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