Davis Index: Market Intelligence for the Global Metals and Recycled Materials Markets

Russian metal producer Nornickel’s expects nickel output of 225,000-235,000mt  in 2020, up by 2pc from the previous year. The company, however, expects output to drop to 215,000-225,00mt by 2021-2022 due to planned furnaces maintenance at their Nadezhda smelter.


Nornickel  expects its copper output to drop to 420,000-440,000mt in 2020, from 454,000mt in 2019 and further fall to 390,000-420,000mt by 2021-2022 due to secondary feedstock depletion. Output is expected to recover in  2024-2025 driven by growth of mined ore volumes.


According to the revised post COVID-19 forecast by the company, the global consumption of nickel will drop by 3pc to 2.45mn mt from the earlier expected consumption of 2.54mn mt. Consumption will decline on weaker demand from Europe and the US industries as their activities have been put on hold. Nornickel expects global production of nickel to drop by 1pc to 2.56mn mt as it expects NPI losses in China in Jan-Feb to be partially offset by the ramp up of NPI capacities in Indonesia.This could cause a global surplus of 108,000mt of nickel in 2020, up by 66,000mt from previously predicted.


According to Nornickel, global consumption of copper will drop by 1.2pc to 23.67mn mt also due to reduced industrial activity in Europe and the US. Global refined copper production is expected to drop by 1.4pc, mainly due to output decline in China because of COVID-19. There could be a global surplus of 60,000mt in 2020, down by 50,000mt than previously predicted.


Nornickel sold 244,000mt of nickel in 2019, up by 6.5pc and 486,000mt of copper, up by 5.4pc from the previous year.



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