Iron ore is expected to trend upward but begin to decline with an estimated forecast of $100/mt cfr China in 2022-2023, according to Australia’s Industry, Innovation, and Science Resources and Energy Quarterly report.
Australia’s mining exports were estimated at AUD$310bn ($233bn) in 2020-2021 with about 50pc of those earnings derived from iron ore. In 2020-2021, total exports are anticipated to rise to AUD$334bn. In 2022-2023 however, falling prices are anticipated to drop total earnings to AUD$304bn. Iron ore export earnings are anticipated to rise to AUD$149bn in 2020—2021, AUD$137bn in 2021-2022, and AUS$113bn in 2022-2023.
Iron ore prices broke $200/mt cfr China for Fe 62pc in June but prices are anticipated to trend toward $137/mt by the end of this year, average at $129/mt in 2021-2022, and at $100/mt in 2022-2023. Iron ore export volumes are forecasted at 871mn mt, 904mn mt, and 954mn mt for the next three annual periods. China consumed 45pc of Australian resources and mined commodity exports in 2020. Chinese economic growth is predicted at 8.4pc in 2021 and about 5.5pc for the subsequent two years, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Resources and Energy Export Volumes Index rose by 8pc in Q2 2021 from the preceding quarter, but volumes were 2pc lower than the same year-ago quarter. Expenditure and Expected Expenditure survey for the Q1 2021 shows that Australia’s mining industry invested AUS$8.1bn, up 1.3pc from the same quarter a year ago but down 14pc from the preceding quarter.
Copper is anticipated at AUS$12-13bn annually as aluminum remains around AUS$4bn annually for the next three years.